Sunday, February 1, 2009

2nd Phase of the economy crisis?

The start of the crisis came about in the US Subprime Market. Subprime is a bubble build up by the bank and became their worst nightmare.

What is subprime? In traditional bank loan, bank uses their fund to loan directly to the loaner and the loaner must meet a certain criteria to qualify for the loan. In subprime, bank loan the loaner as user but the fund they uses fund from raising it through bond sold to investor. Since this is not a fund of theirs and they earn more from this ways, alot of things is mislooked purposely for short term gain. They do not check the lender crediblity and ability to pay back the fund, since this is not directly the bank's fund.

The Start
The 1.3 trillion Subprime collapse eventually as the money loan out is not able to be return to the investor as fast due to low repayment from loaner. This directly causes investor to loss confidence and stop funding the market which causes bank to have problem paying the investor when the investor withdraw from the bond.

After Subprime got hit, home sale dropped as people find it harder to get loan due to the 1.3 trillion trapped in subprime. When home sale dropped, the Home builder is the next to get hit with the bank.

2nd Phase
AIG got hit hard by the money market which disable them to loan from the market and saw them got nationalized and USA risk of not getting back the money in the next 10 years.
Automotive get hit in the USA, as USA auto maker branded themselves as the luxury group and also due to the Oil price hike (USA cars are normally not fuel efficient due to their high horsepowered engine) which saw them less attractive to the Japanese during hard times. When sale dipped with less liquidity in the money market to maintain their expenses, we saw them in trouble. Luckily they have a big bargain chip in their hand where they employ 1.2 million employees, with the unemployment rises close to 491,000. So another 1.2 million job losses is not a small thing to be ignore.

3rd Phase?
All the suppliers who supply raw material (e.g. iron, aluminum, oil), basic parts (Car brakes, car lightning, home accessories and etc) and trader (people who trade stock like raw material to another country) to be in crisis as they will have hard time selling to their stocks.

Hopes?
Green Energy? I believe in times of crisis, people will try to save to find more ways to save on their electricity and car fuel. So company their due with this will get more popular and Government will be likely to pump in fund to stimulate more ideas and products to be implement.